In our blog post Daily Thinking – Discovering Patterns we showed some alarming daily thinking habits, like assuming that there is a linear, unambiguously relation between a cause and an effect. For example, it is assumed that increasing e-commerce will reduce traffic. People will less go to shopping malls.
However, delivering goods, ordered one by one with take-back guarantee will increase van traffic, it turns out.
What also seems to be missed in the public discourse is the effect e-commerce will have on jobs, towns and neighbourhoods. It is an example of a tendency we show in daily sloppy thinking: the neglect of focus. That is; a tendency to focus on immediate problems, neglecting long-term challenges.
Another tendency is the assumption that there is no feedback effect. Below you see a graphic representation (a concept map) from an article we came across about how “the Amazon-effect” will change your life and investments.
Glance over it quickly and immediately you will spot some positive feedback loops.That is to say, there are tendencies to cause system instability. It will affect not only traffic and pollution but also local tax revenues, the availability of jobs, real estate, investments made in infrastructure, all leading to deterioration of living conditions in towns and neighbourhood.
Unless policy makers could design some negative feedback loops to establish some stability in this unexpected dynamic system.
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