For Black Swan-like events, it seems more sensible to design robust measures than to rely on scientific models that are inherently based on previous events and therefore do not apply. And even worse, they give a misplaced feeling of being in control.
To what extent are more subsystems involved than just the health care system in tackling the crisis? How are they built? What data they use? Is it taken into account that the spread of the virus, the measures that are taken by the government, and the reactions of the citizens form a complex dynamic system?
In the Coronacrisis, the lack of drive is due to flawed thinking. Unfortunately, there is no reason at all to believe that the same flaws of linear thinking and statistical approaches do not play a role in developing measures to get out of the lockdown. Because of a thinking habit, not changed since the 17th century.
How was situation awareness built up in the Coronacrisis and how have(not) considered information multiplied the blundering into disaster?
In the crucial month of February, in those weeks before the major outbreak in Europe, there was still room to stock up on protective equipment, to scale up the laboratories, to expand the purchase and production of test materials, to prepare for the removal of serum with antibodies in healed patients. Only, it didn’t happen. …
Our hypothesis is that a lack of thinking skills among governments, health institutions and the population has seriously contributed to the spread of the Corona virus