In our blog post Daily Thinking – Discovering Patterns we showed some alarming daily thinking habits, like assuming that there is a linear, unambiguously relation between a cause and an effect. For example, it is assumed that increasing e-commerce will reduce traffic. People will less … Continue reading
According to Oxford University, 47% of jobs will disappear in the next 25 years. Could you think up which ones?
Take any profession (doctor, mechanic, teacher, nurse, etc) and/or any branch (consumer products, construction, finance, retail) and confront it in a matrix, one for one, with
- Artificial Intelligence
- Cloud based apps
- Blockchain technology
- 3D printers
- Virtual reality
Could you imagine what jobs will disappear as a result of (a combination) of new technologies?
If you take as working hypothesis that all intermediary jobs (bank employees, notaries, tax officers) will disappear, what jobs will likely cease to exist by 2040?
Why not check out the blog post The DIY of the Future for inspiration?
In all highly developed civilizations, we see a trend to more:
- segmentation: division into segments
- specialization: made or used for one particular purpose, job, place, etc.
- differentiation: development from the one to the many, the simple to the complex, or the homogeneous to the heterogeneous
- classification: a category into which something is put
You could say that products, jobs, scientific disciplines, processes, phenomena, etc are continually divided up into smaller parts or “conceptual boxes”. The consequence is that such societies become more complex: finding the right “box” and making choices are becoming increasingly laborous and burdensome.
Segmentation is one of the eight trends in TRIZ that predicts the future development of a system that could happen. Below some examples:
Sub-specialties of cardiology are developed along electrical properties of the heart, the use of ultrasound, catheters, and nuclear medicine.
In economics and marketing, product differentiation (or simply differentiation) is the process of distinguishing a product or service from others, to make it more attractive to a particular target market.
Some hundred years ago sport shoes were invented as an alternative of the rather rigid all-day-shoe of leather. Nowadays for nearly any sport there is a specialized shoe available, specifically designed for that sport.
Sometimes the further segmentation reaches to the point of absurdity:
Market segmentation is a marketing strategy which involves dividing a broad target market into subsets.
Segmentation has been one of the strongest strategies in marketing as it is traditionally practiced. If you enter a new category, you attempt to create a product that is distinct from those already there, by carving out a niche. However, segmentation is a more-of-the-same strategy and could be easily counterproductive because it is based on the existing products and markets. Instead of fighting over an ever decreasing fragment of a market, by transforming a product enough to make it suitable to satisfy new or different needs, it is possible to create a new market. It is called lateral marketing.
The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) offers a common language and standard criteria for the classification of mental disorders.The DSM-I, from 1952, listed 106; the DSM-III, from 1980, listed 265, and the current DSM-IV has 297 mental disorders. It means that over 5o% of all Americans will have a diagnosable mental illness in their lifetimes. It seems that “b0xing”and “sub-boxing” provoke their own dynamics, as explained in this interesting article: Abnormal is the New Normal by Robin S. Rosenberg
What can innovators learn from art?
Observation skills, questioning, and experimentation are vital parts of innovation. Observing everyday activities can lead to new insights where things can be improved on. It can also lead to break-through ideas.
The innovation psychologist Leon Segal said:
“Innovation begins with an eye.”
Innovators carefully watch the world around them and the observations help them gain ideas for new ways of doing things. Observation skills are also at the core of art. Art students are often told to draw what they actually look at, rather than the way they think something should look. Copying someone’s ideas will not in itself lead to a person developing creative thinking skills. A painter needs to learn to think in colours, an artist working with sculptures need to think in 3D, and a songwriter needs to learn to think in lyrics.
Art is sometimes used to help medical students to develop their observations skills. Looking at art can help people understand ambiguities in a painting and also to look closely at something without “rushing to assign meaning to what we see.” Many of us are ready to immediately interpret what we see, yet looking at art can help a person to slow down and really observe things without immediately interpreting things. These skills can also help an innovator to explore aspects and to help step out of the common way of interpreting things. Quick thinking is good sometimes but certain things are good to slowly digest.
Even if looking at art can help a person to develop observation skills the observation in itself is not enough. Making connections, questioning, visualising, and searching for patterns are also important aspects of art. Art can help a person to make connections between things. innovators often have a passion for questioning things. The importance of question asking is a topic that has been previously explored in this blog. Valuing questions and being curious can lead to a search for new ways of doing things. Rather than focusing on quick answers, the innovative process thrives on asking questions to provoke new insights, possibilities and connections.
The book The View from the Cheap Seats: Selected Nonfiction is a wonderful collection of Neil Gaiman’s essays, and meditations on life, literature, and the life and love of literature. An inspiring essay in the book explores the ideas and ideals at the heart of Bradbury’s classic book Fahrenheit 451. This book is a great reminder of how important it is to explore one’s values. Neil suggests that speculative fiction gives us a “liberation of vision”. Yet in order for this to happen, we must acknowledge that each story has a multiplicity of meanings.
Authors can offer an imagined but nevertheless persuasive alternative reality where the readers are offered a way to escape from the usual traditional way of thinking. New possibilities can be examined. It is easy to think that the way we live now is somehow the only way that the world can be organised.
Three questions can help an author to imagine possible worlds:
- What if …? This question provides a way to escape from the world. What if I could fold up my car?
- If only … Allows us explore something exciting as well as the terrifying about the future. If only there were no cars.
- If this goes on … What would happen if that thing became bigger, became all-pervasive? Does not try to predict the future rather explores possible scenarios. If this way of parking cars goes on there will be no green spaces left in the cities.
Innovators are examining and trying out new ideas. Testing hypothesis and visiting new places and worlds. Imagining different futures is a fundamental aspect of the innovative process and reading books about the future can provide valuable insights. It can also help us develop skills to examine possible futures. A world that does not yet exist!
Photo: Kevin Krejci
A couple of years ago, I read lots of article about nanotechnology and maybe if I had been asked back then to identify risks, I would have suggested it. But I must admit that I was surprised when saw nanotechnology on the Report from the Global Challenges Foundation (see also blogpost Thinking about the Future). This shows not only how time influences you and how you slowly get used to ideas, but also how important it is to carefully explore lots of suggestions before making a list of risk
So why nanotechonlogy?
Let us start with what it is? And the benefits of nanotechnology.
Nanotechnology is atomically precise engineering. One nanometer is small, one billionth, or 10−9, of a meter. Nanotechnology is about doing thing at a scale between a hundred thousand times and a thousand times thinner than one of your hairs.
“Most benefits of nanotechnology depend on the fact that it is possible to tailor the essential structures of materials at the nanoscale to achieve specific properties, thus greatly extending the well-used tool-kits of materials science. Using nanotechnology, materials can effectively be made to be stronger, lighter, more durable, more reactive, more sieve-like, or better electrical conductors, among many other traits.” From Nano.gov
Thus, nanotechnology has the potential to provide solutions for a range of problems such as pollution and climate change, We can create and design resilient materials, greener more powerful vehicles, nano robots that can help perform medical surgery, filtration of water and low-cost detection of pollution in water and air.
Nanotechnology is going to be part of everyday life and today you can find it in sport equipment, cosmetics as well as electronics. So what are the “no nos of nanotechnology”?
- nanopollutants – nanoparticles are small and they can enter or be absorbed in your skin – today, nanoparticles are used in anti-aging cosmetics and sunscreens use
- privacy invasion – devices can be designed to increase the spying on citizens and corporation as well as on governments.
- weapons – nanotechonolgy weapons can be designed as small as an insect and nanotechnology arms is a possible treat to humans as well as to animals.
- artificial blood-cells made by nanotechnology could damage the environment
The list of possible risk with a breakthrough technology such as nanotechnology is long, but the greatest risk is that short-term monetary benefits are prioritized over a long-term approach where the consequences of each product is carefully studied. Lesson from technologies such as synthetic chemistry and the chemicals revolution should have made us all a bit more careful about the safety of new products.
There are some fascinating developments which call for some “What If Thinking”.
Four technological developments
Nowadays more or less everyone is connected to someone via the Internet. It is assumed that any person can connect to another person via a friend of a friend, all it takes is six or fewer steps for anyone to be introduced to someone – it is a small world.
Stanley Milgram explored the relationship in the Small World Experiment in 1967 and although the experiment have several weakness it is still a popular research topic. By the introduction of the Internet only Six Degrees of Separation are between you and everyone on your mobile phone. Recent studies even suggest that the world has shrinked as a result of Social Networking such as Facebook and there may only be Three Degrees of Separation. We are and feel more connected to each other.
Soon all conceivable devices will also be connected. This means that a thousand physical quantities built-in (like length, or torque, or tensile strength, or clicks per impression), as well as nearly 10,000 units of measure (like inches, or meters per second or katals or micropascals per square root hertz) will be connected to the Internet.Those devices could be linked to a person (a smart watch for instance), to a product or a process or linked to a GPS-position. If a standard exchange protocol, as proposed by the Wolfgang Connected Devices Project, will be developed, a seamless integration of as many kinds of devices may be possible.
A third development is that we assume that the production costs of devices will be decreased by the use of nanotechnology and the trend of individuation of products will continue. As a result of a reduction of production costs, several devices such equipments such as heart rate monitors, fitness equipment and books, are becoming more affordable for individual use. These items were previously only available for organisations and groups, such as a hospital, gym or library,
A fourth development that will function as a kind of multiplier that will dramatically increase the mentioned developments. Manufacturers of devices will no longer offer a device plus its processor plus an infrastructure linked to that device. They will make use of the facilities the buyer already have. That is, a computer or a mobile phone, with all their data processing qualities and connections built-in. We will see that producers will adopt strategies that are derived from the biological concept of symbiosis.
Crowd research offers a great opportunity to explore possibilities and opportunities. Already we can see examples how those four developments or trends will interact and reinforce each other, especially what we call, by lack of better, Crowd Research
- SETI, a distributed computingproject in which volunteers donate idle computer power to analyze radio signals for signs of extraterrestrial intelligence.
- In the Open-Source Bee Project a global set of sensors could give scientists new insight into the possible causes of Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD). A cheap sensor could turn backyard beekeepers into an army of citizen-scientists
- Zooniverse is a citizen science web portal owned and operated by the Citizen Science Alliance. The organization grew from the original Galaxy Zoo project and now hosts dozens of projects which allow volunteers to participate in scientific research. Zooniverse projects require the active participation of human volunteers to complete research tasks. Projects have been drawn from disciplines including astronomy, ecology, cell biology, humanities, and climate science. The Zooniverse community consisted of more than 1 million registered volunteers. The data collected from the various projects has led to the publication of more than 50 scientific papers.
- eBird is an online database of bird observations providing scientists, researchers and amateur naturalists with real-time data about bird distribution and abundance. eBird has been described as an ambitious example of enlisting amateurs to gather data on biodiversity for use in science. eBird is an example of treating citizens as scientists, allowing the public to access and use their own data and the collective data generated by others.
- Tomnod took images gathered by their satellites and offered them to the public for viewing and identification in the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. 2.3 million people used the site to look for signs of wreckage, oil spills and other objects of interest. During the 2010 Haiti earthquake, OpenStreetMap and Crisis Commons volunteers used available satellite imagery to map the roads, buildings and refugee camps of Port-au-Prince in just two days, building “the most complete digital map of Haiti’s roads”
Emerging Crowd Research
We may speculate that the availability of cheap devices linked to mobile phones will increase crowd research exponentially in nearly every area of human activity.
The Quantified Self is a movement to incorporate technology into data acquisition on aspects of a person’s daily life in terms of inputs (e.g. food consumed, quality of surrounding air), states (e.g. mood, arousal, blood oxygen levels), and performance (mental and physical). Such self-monitoring and self-sensing, which combines wearable sensors (EEG, ECG, video, etc.) and wearable computing. Quantified self is self-knowledge through self-tracking with technology. Quantified self advancement have allowed individuals to quantify bio-metrics that they never knew existed, as well as make data collection cheaper and more convenient. One can track insulin and Coriolis levels, sequence DNA, and see what microbial cells inhabit his or her body.
If the collected data are shared, imaging what hidden cause-effect relations will emerge foe example, between life style, geographical area, and food consumption. Architects could use the data to design better buildings, routes and cities. The data can be used to design office layouts that stimulates physical exercise. The data could be used to monitor healthy persons, which could lead to changes in medical science which is per definition based on ill people. It can be used to map the spreading of viruses. People could compare their work pace with others in the branch and in other branches. Scientific disciplines as psychology and sociology would be freed from unreliable research methods like interviews and questionnaires.
What if dreams are massively recorded on a world scale? Do poor people dream about other things than rich people? Are Japanese dreams different from dreams in Africa? Shadow: Community of Dreamers, crowd financed with $82,500, wakes people up with an alarm, prompts them to anonymously describe their dreams, and beams those reports into a massive online set, where they can be searched and analyzed. Dreams are coded for age, sex, location, and time.
What if there are cheap devices that measures the quality of tap water or swim water? What if people near Fukushima are no longer dependent on radiation levels from the government or TESCO because there is a cheap device that in combination with a mobile phone share information about radio activity? If many, many people have their own weather station and are plugged in a network, would it not enhance farming at a huge scale? What if anybody with a mobile phone could recognize a sought or missing person?
What if cars have an on-line device that measures the air quality, but also will display that level of air pollution at their rooftops ? Would it lead to “air pollution traffic control”? Wouldn’t it be confronting and provoke to action by citizens?
All cars have an indicator on their roof that shows the level of pollution: low, medium, too high
Ultimately, we may see an enormous democratising of information that till now has been monopolised by institutions and governments and, as history shows, often a lot of data and information has been denied or hidden from civilians.
Many organisations and many people struggle with implementing plans, strategies or intentions. As a Thinkibility nibble we will hypothesize here that it is caused by boring presentations, but also by neglecting the planning process with all stakeholders.
Planning is often an interactive process
We will put forward the idea that, although most planning tools use visuals, they are still boring. Look at these examples of a Gantt-chart
or a PERT-diagram:
Or something like this:
But what would happen if you use a map of the to set up base camps at the Mount Everest?
Or reenacting Shackleton’s dramatic journey:
Or to make your own map of dependencies like a Metro map?
Or Flight Plans:
What if you use for maintenance planning the map of the Versailles?
For planning acquisitions and mergers you could use colonization maps:
Another idea is to go in the Third Interactivity Dimension, by building a planning town with paper, wood or Lego:
See also the earlier post Life Redefined, about possible designs for a monthly planner by using known board games.